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April 12, 2017

Flooding in Argentina brings back bad Memories from April 2016

Heavy rains in Argentina over the weekend has added to the problems of localized flooding that started several weeks ago. This has farmers in Argentina wondering if the weather this April will be a repeat of last April when flooding severely impacted their soybean and corn crops. The recent flooding and chances of additional flooding has caused many analysts to be more cautious concerning the Argentine soybean crop.

The flooding will reduce the soybean harvested area in Argentina, but there are not any good estimates as yet concerning how many hectares of soybeans have been flooded out. Everyone remembers what happened last April when heavy rains and flooding severely impacted the 2015/16 Argentine soybean crop.

According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, the soybean harvest was 5.9% complete late last week compared to 7.6% a year earlier. The majority of soybeans harvested thus far in Argentina have been from the northern core region where over 20% of the crop has been harvested. In southern Argentina the soybeans are 0-5% harvested and in northern Argentina less than 1% has been harvested. In the northern core region, the soybean harvest is about 20% slower than last year.

The Grain Exchange estimates that the average nationwide soybean yield thus far is 3,190 kg/ha (46.2 bu/ac), but that estimate is probably over estimating the nationwide yield because most of the soybeans harvested thus far are from one of the highest yielding regions of the country. So far, the average yields from the northern core region are estimated at 3,910 kg/ha (56.6 bu/ac). The Grain Exchange left their soybean estimate unchanged at 56.5 million tons and for the first time in three weeks, they did not indicate that their estimate might move higher in subsequent reports.

The ample rainfall and localized flooding over the past week occurred in La Pampa, Buenos Aires, Cordoba, Santa Fe, Entre Rios, and in northern Argentina. In many of these areas the soybean crop is mature or close to maturity, so saturated conditions could result in lost yield and poor seed quality. At this writing, it is too early to say how many hectares were lost