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April 12, 2019

Conab Increases Brazilian Corn Est. 1.2 mt to 94.0 Million

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

In their April Crop Report, Conab made a slight upward adjustment of 0.3 million tons to their 2018/19 Brazilian soybean crop to 113.8 million tons and they increased their estimate of the 2018/19 Brazilian corn crop by 1.2 million tons to 94.0 million.

The 2018/19 Brazilian corn estimate was increased 1.2 million tons from last month to 94.0 million tons. This now represents an increase of 13.2 million tons (+16.5%) compared to last year's production of 80.7 million tons.

The full-season corn production declined 0.3 million tons from last month to 25.8 million tons. The full-season corn acreage is estimated at 5.01 million hectares (12.3 million acres) and the yield is estimated at 5,155 kg/ha (79.3 bu/ac).

The safrinha corn production increased 1.5 million tons from last month to 68.1 million tons. The safrinha corn acreage is estimated at 12.23 million acres (30.2 million acres) and the yield is estimated at 5,568 kg/ha (85.7 bu/ac). The safrinha corn acreage increased 190,000 hectares from the March report and it is now up 6.1% compared to last year. The safrinha corn production now represents 72% of Brazil's total corn production.

Brazilian farmers took advantage of the early soybean harvest and the beneficial weather to increase their safrinha corn acreage more than initial expectations. Many Brazilian farmers also put more emphasis on their safrinha corn production in hope of making up for a disappointing soybean crop. The recent weather in Brazil has been beneficial for the safrinha corn and farmers are very optimistic concerning their safrinha corn production. The safrinha corn in central Brazil is generally filling grain and the safrinha corn in southern Brazil is pollinating and filling grain.

In recent years, Conab's April corn estimate has tended to be below the final production about 75% of the time, so it is possible they will increase their estimate in future reports. Brazil's record corn production was 98.5 million tons set in 2016/17.

Conab increased their estimate of the 2018/19 Brazilian soybean crop 0.3 million tons from last month to 113.8 million tons. If realized, the soybean production would be down 5.4 million tons (-4.6%) compared to last year's production of 119.2 million tons.

The 2018/19 Brazilian soybean acreage is down slightly from last month to 35.77 million hectares (88.3 million acres). This represents an increase of 1.8% compared to last year's acreage of 35.14 million hectares (86.7 million acres). The nationwide soybean yield is now estimated at 3,182 kg/ha (47.0 bu/ac), which is down 6.2% compared to last year's yield of 3,394 kg/ha (50.2 bu/ac).

The early maturing soybeans in Brazil were negatively impacted by an extended period of hot and dry weather from late November through early January which occurred as the early maturing soybeans were filling pods. Starting in mid-January, the weather improved allowing more normal yields for the later maturing soybeans. The soybean harvest in Brazil is now approaching 90% complete.