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April 15, 2019

Researcher Predicts Frost will not Impact Corn in Southern Brazil

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

According to a researcher from Embrapa, which is the Brazilian agricultural research service, he has developed a system that allows him to predict the possibility of frosts in southern Mato Grosso do Sul as much as six months in advance. His system is based on rainfall data registered in the city of Dourados, which is located in southern Mato Grosso do Sul, and ocean surface temperatures recorded by NOAA. He claims his system has a 95% confidence level predicting when a frost will occur and its intensity!

Frost in May or June can significantly impact the safrinha corn crop in southern Brazil, especially if the corn is planted late. Normally, the late-planted corn in Mato Grosso do Sul would not be safe from frost until later in June.

For 2019, the researcher is forecasting that there will not be a frost in southern Mato Grosso do Sul during May or June because the minimum temperature during that period is forecasted to be 10.9°C (approximately 51°F) . Frost generally do not occur unless the minimum temperatures are 4°C or lower (approximately 39°F). Generally, frosts do not occur in southern Brazil in May or June, but they can occur occasionally. Time will tell if he is correct or not.