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April 21, 2016

Hot and Dry Weather Impacting Safrinha Corn in Parana

The dry weather pattern that continues to impact the safrinha corn crop in central Brazil is now taking a toll on the safrinha corn crop in northern Parana. The state of Parana is the second leading safrinha corn producing state in Brazil and is responsible for approximately 23% of the total production. Mato Grosso is the leading safrinha corn producing state in Brazil and responsible for 37% of the safrinha corn production according to the latest estimate from Conab.

Up until recently, the safrinha corn crop in Parana had been rated in good condition especially the earlier planted corn in the western part of the state, but that has now started to change. Northern Parana has entered into a definite dryer cycle with many areas having been three weeks without rain and very high temperatures. This is especially troubling for the later planted corn that may be in the midst of pollination. The forecast is calling for improved possibilities of rain next week, but even then, the rains are expected to be light.

According to the Department of Rural Economics (Deral), the safrinha corn in Parana is 31% in vegetative development, 36% pollinating, and 32% in grain filling. The most sensitive time for a corn plant is during pollination or just prior to pollination, so a significant portion of the corn crop in the state could be at risk from the current hot and dry conditions.

The safrinha corn planting in Parana only ended last week, well past the ideal planting window for safrinha corn which closed a month ago. This late planted corn will need good rainfall through the month of July to achieve adequate yields.

Deral estimates that farmers in the state planted 2.15 million hectares of safrinha corn or 12% more than last year and that the production will be 12.64 million tons or 9% more than last year. Most observers feel the Deral production estimate is too high and that the safrinha corn crop in the state could end up 10-15% lower than earlier estimates.