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April 21, 2020

Brazil Soybean Export Pace Intensifies

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Brazilian soybean exports have intensified in recent weeks. Brazil exported a record 13.5 million tons of soybeans during March. Brazil might set a new record of 14.5 million tons of soybean exports in April and they could export at least 10 million tons in May. The lineup at Brazilian ports for the next three months (May-June-July) indicates that Brazil could export an additional 29 million tons of soybeans. Thus far this year, Brazil has exported approximately 24 million tons of soybeans compared to 20 million tons during the same period last year.

There is very little price advantage for Brazilian soybeans, but they are better quality compared to U.S. soybeans in terms of protein and oil which makes them attractive for Chinese buyers. As of late last week, June soybeans from Brazil were US$ 339.60 per ton compared to May soybeans from the U.S. at US$ 340.66 per ton. July soybeans from Brazil were US$ 345.20 per ton and June soybeans from the U.S. were US$ 342.20 per ton according to ARC Mercosul.

If you want to see what a "supply chain" looks like, look at the two pictures below.

map

map

These two images are from the Refinitiv Eikon system and Karen Braun from Reuters International and they were published by Noticas Agricolas. Each green dot is a vessel carrying Brazilian soybeans.

I thought these images were not only a great visual depiction of Brazil's soybean exports, they were also a good illustration that the "Norther Arc" of ports in Brazil ship their soybeans to mainly Europe and north Africa while the ports in southern Brazil ship their soybeans to Asia.