April 27, 2016
2015/16 South American Soybean Production now Below Last Year
The steak of record large soybean crops in South America has now come to a screeching halt. We knew the Brazilian soybean crop had problems from the beginning of the growing season, so it was no surprise that the lofty estimates at the start of the growing season have been declining as the harvest progressed. The crop is now ending on a poor note due to dryness in northeastern Brazil and wetness in far southern Brazil.
The big surprise this year in South America is the terrible end to the growing season in Argentina. Three weeks ago, the soybean crop in Argentina looked very good with prospects of record yields in many locations. Now that is no longer the case.
As a result, the 2015/16 soybean crop in South America is no longer a record large crop. I am currently estimating the 2015/16 South American soybean crop at 169.3 million tons compared to 171.4 million tons produced in 2014/15. So the string of huge soybean crops every six months has been broken and I think there could also be a lot of "head winds" for the 2016/17 soybean crop in South America.