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April 2, 2019

Brazilian Farmers Optimistic about Safrinha Corn Production

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

As far the safrinha corn is concerned, the weather last week in Brazil was a split decision. In the northern areas, beneficial rains kept the crop in good condition. In the southern production areas, it stayed dry again last week, but the forecast is calling for a frontal system to move into southern Brazil from Argentina this week bringing with it beneficial rains. If this forecast verifies, it will be good news for Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Sao Paulo that have been generally dry for the last several weeks.

The safrinha corn in the northern production areas of Mato Grosso and Goias is going to do very well. The area continues to receive rain and there is more in the forecast. I have been concerned about the Brazilian corn production due to the developing dryness in southern Brazil, but now it looks like they will receive the needed rainfall.

The safrinha corn in southern Brazil is not "out of the woods" just yet. Cold temperatures are also a potential concern in southern Brazil. The safrinha corn in Parana is about 40% either pollinating or filling grain, so the corn is a long way from being safe from frost or dry weather. Any frosts in Parana or Mato Grosso do Sul during April or May could negatively impact the safrinha corn in both states. But, that is a potential problem in the future, for now, the crop is good condition.

Mato Grosso - The safrinha corn in Mato Grosso was all planted several weeks ago and the most advanced corn is pollinating and starting to fill grain. The safrinha corn in Mato Grosso is currently in very good condition and farmers are very optimistic about their potential corn yields.

Parana - The Department of Rural Economics (Deral) reported earlier last week that the safrinha corn was 97% planted and that the corn was rated 5% average and 95% good. The corn was 3% germinating, 61% in vegetative development, 22% pollinating, and 14% filling grain.

Reuters reported last week that a survey of 10 Brazilian analysts indicated an average safrinha corn harvest of 66.2 million tons, which was 0.8 million tons more than their estimate last month (65.3 million tons). The survey estimated the acreage up 4.8% compared to last year at 12.09 million hectares.