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April 8, 2020

Argentina Soybeans 8.1% Harvested, Yields Variable

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Rains last week interrupted the soybean harvest which was 8.1% complete late last week. This represents an advance of 3.5% for the week, which is slower than normal due to wet soils in Buenos Aires province. The weather in the northern core region was dryer and as a result, the soybean harvest in that region was a little over 30% last week. Thus far, the early yields in the northern core region are very good (4,600 kg/ha or 60.0 bu/ac), but these should be the best yields in all of Argentina this year. Generally 6-7% or less of the soybeans have been harvested in many other regions of Argentina.

The average yield thus far reported by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange is 3,750 kg/ha (55.5 bu/ac), but that is not an accurate picture since over 50%of the soybeans harvested thus far have been in the northern core region, which has the best soybean yields of the country.

The soybean harvest in Argentina was 8.1% complete late last week compared to 6.4% last year and 9.7% average. The early planted soybeans were 12% harvested with 0% of the late planted soybeans harvested. The soybeans in general were rated 33% good to excellent, which is down 1 point from last week. The soil moisture for the soybeans was rated 85% favorable to optimum, which was up 9 points from last week. The improved moisture could help some of the later planted soybeans, but it came too late for many of the earlier planted soybeans.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered their 2019/20 Argentina soybean estimate last week by 2.5 million tons to 49.5 million. They cited continued disappointing yields as the harvest progressed to 8.1%. They estimated that the nationwide soybean yield could be as low as 2,900 kg/ha (42.9 bu/ac) compared to 3,350 kg/ha last year (49.5 bu/ac) and 2,980 kg/ha for the 5-year average (44.1 bu/ac).

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange "telegraphed" two weeks ago that they might lower their soybean estimate and they followed through on that last week by lowering their estimate by 2.5 million tons. They indicated again last week that their estimate might be lowered further in the weeks ahead depending on the outcome of the double crop soybeans.