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August 12, 2015

U.S. Corn Condition Steady, Soybeans Improve Slightly

Corn - The condition of the 2015 U.S. corn crop held steady last week at 70% rated good to excellent. Seven states indicated that the corn condition had improved last week and 6 states indicated that the corn condition had declined last week with 5 states unchanged. Most of the improvements were found in the northern and western Corn Belt while most of the declines were found in the southern locations. The top five rated corn states are: Minnesota, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, and Iowa. The five states with the lowest rated corn are: Kansas, North Carolina, Indiana, Ohio, and Missouri.

Just the fact that the corn held steady last week is actually good news for the corn since the conditions usually decline on a weekly basis at this time of the year (see graph at end of report). If the dryer than normal forecast for this week verifies, the condition next week will either hold steady again or decline one point.

Soybeans - The condition of the 2015 U.S. soybean crop held steady last week at 63% rated good to excellent. Nine states indicated that the soybean condition had improved last week and 4 states indicated that the soybean condition had declined last week with 5 states unchanged. Most of the improvements were found generally across the Corn Belt while most of the declines were found in the Delta. The top five rated soybean states are: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Tennessee, and North Dakota. The five states with the lowest rated soybeans are: Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Illinois, and North Carolina.

There was a slight shift of one percent from the good category moving into the excellent category. This is also slightly positive for the soybeans since the condition of the soybeans usually declines at this time of the year (see graph at end of report). If the dryer forecast verifies, I think the condition of the soybeans next week will also either hold steady or decline one point.

Soil moisture - The nation's topsoil got dryer again last week for the sixth week in a row. Seven states indicated that the topsoil got wetter last week and 10 states indicated that the topsoil got dryer last week. Most of the soils that got wetter were found in the northern locations while most of the soils that got dryer were found in the eastern and southern locations. The five states with the wettest topsoil are: Missouri, Kentucky, Indiana, Iowa, and Illinois. The five states with the driest topsoil are: Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Arkansas, and South Dakota.

The nation's topsoil got dryer again last, but the decline was not as steep as it was last week (see graph at end of report). With a dryer than normal near term forecast, I think the soils will get dryer again next week for the seventh week in a row.