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August 12, 2019

Second Frost Negatively Impacts Brazil's 2019 Wheat Crop

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The state of Parana in southern Brazil generally produces more than half of Brazil's wheat, but the wheat crop in the state suffered its second frost in less than a month and there are concerns that the state's wheat production may decline even further.

The first frost occurred on July 6th and the Department of Rural Economics (Deral) estimated that it resulted in a 15% reduction in the state's wheat crop down to 2.7 million tons. The second frost that occurred last weekend was not as intense, but it is still expected to cause additional losses especially in the southwestern region of the state where the temperatures were the coldest and the wheat was in a sensitive stage of development.

Losses from the most recent frost are expected to be more restricted, but agronomist indicated that it can take up to 1-2 weeks to accurately evaluate the losses from frost. When the frost occurred, the wheat crop in Parana was 28% flowering and 35% filling grain.

Deral is expected to issue their latest evaluation of the state's wheat crop during the third week of August. The second frost is just the latest problem for the state's wheat crop that includes dry weather in the northern part of the state.

Parana generally produces more than half of Brazil's wheat crop and prior to the frosts, Brazil was expected to import 7 million tons of wheat to meet its domestic needs. Brazil may now need to import more than 7 million tons of wheat due to the ongoing problems with Parana's wheat crop.