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August 16, 2016

Conab Lowers Brazilian Corn Estimate again in August Crop Report

Brazilian Soybeans - Conab released their August Crop Report last week and in that report they lowered the 2015/16 Brazilian soybean estimate by 0.15 million tons from 95.57 million tons in July to 95.41 million tons in August. The 2015/16 Brazilian soybean crop is now 0.8% lower than the 2014/15 crop which was 96.22 million tons.

The 2015/16 Brazilian soybean acreage was 33.24 million hectares (82.1 million acres) or 3.6% more than 2014/15. The average soybean yield is now estimated at 2,870 kg/ha (41.6 bu/ac) or 4.3% lower than last year.

Mato Grosso is the largest soybean producing state on Brazil accounting for 27.5% of the total soybean acreage. The soybean acreage in Mato Grosso increased 2.3% in 2015/16, but the total production in the state declined 7.1% to 26.03 million tons. Soybean yields in Mato Grosso declined by 9.2% to 2,848 kg/ha (41.2 bu/ac) due to very adverse weather. Conab indicated that there might be a small increase in soybean acreage in Mato Grosso in 2016/17, but they did not release any figures.

Conab estimates that Brazil will export 54.10 million tons of soybeans with a domestic consumption of 42.50 million tons. If verified, that would leave a very tight (their words) carryover stock of just 0.44 million tons or approximately 4 days of domestic consumption!

Brazilian Corn - Conab lowered the 2015/16 Brazilian corn production by 0.66 million tons from 69.14 million tons in July to 68.47 million tons in August. The total Brazilian corn production is now down 16.2 million tons from last year or -19.1% (84.67 million tons in 2014/15 vs. 68.47 million tons in 2015/16).

The full-season corn crop is now estimated at 25.88 million tons or 4.2 million tons less than last year (-14%). The full-season corn acreage declined 12.2% to 5.39 million hectares and the full-season corn acreage represented 34% of Brazil's total corn acreage in 2015/16.

The big decline though was for the safrinha corn crop. Conab is now estimating the safrinha corn crop at 42.59 million tons or down 0.46 million from their July estimate. Their estimate is now 22% below last year's safrinha crop (-12.0 million tons). The safrinha corn acreage increased 10.2% in 2015/16 to 10.52 million hectares (25.98 million acres), but the corn yield declined 29.2% to 4,046 kg/ha (62.3 bu/ac). The safrinha corn acreage represented 66% of Brazil total corn acreage in 2015/16.

Mato Grosso is the largest safrinha corn producing state in Brazil and the safrinha corn crop turned out to be very disappointing in 2015/16. Even though the safrinha corn acreage increased 12.4% in 2015/16 to 3.76 million hectares (9.28 million acres), the corn yield declined by 31%. The average statewide corn yield in Mato Grosso is estimated at 4,178 kg/ha (64.3 bu/ac) compared to last year's yield of 6,056 kg/ha (93.2 bu/ac).