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August 17, 2011

Reaction to the 2011 August Crop Report - Corn

The USDA estimated that 84.4 million acres of corn will be harvested for grain (91.4% of the planted acreage) and the nationwide average corn yield will be 153 bu/ac resulting in a total production of 12.91 billion bushels. I think their harvested acreage is too high and I think their nationwide yield estimate is too high for the following reasons.

2011 August Crop Report - U.S. Corn Harvested Acreage

  • Corn harvested acreage is estimated at 84.4 million acres, which is down 500,000 from the June Planted Report and equal to the number I have been using since June. I have been very conservative in my corn harvested acreage anticipating that would go even lower.
  • The USDA is still estimating that 91.4% of the planted acreage will be harvested for grain, which is still too high given the type of growing season we have had thus far.
  • Kansas corn harvested acreage declined 300,000 acres - that is OK.
  • Oklahoma corn harvested acreage declined 100,000 acres - that is OK.
  • Texas corn harvested acreage declined 100,000 acres - OK, but I thought it would be more than that.
  • States where I think the harvested acreage is still too high include:
    • Indiana could decline 50,000 due to ponded areas.
    • Illinois could decline 30,000 due to ponded areas south of Springfield.
    • Missouri could decline 30,000 due to ponding and drought.
    • Ohio could decline 50,000 due to ponding or not being planted.
    • Missouri River corridor (South Dakota, Iowa, and Nebraska) could decline 250,000 due to flooding, which apparently was not accounted for in the report.
  • Total corn harvested acreage could decline another 400,000 to 84.0 million acres, which would be 91% of the planted acreage.

2011 August Crop Report - U.S. Nationwide Corn Yield

  • The nationwide corn yield is estimated at 153 bu/ac, which is down 5.7 bu/ac from their July estimate. My estimate for the nationwide corn yield was 152 and I am going to lower my estimate.
  • Illinois corn yield was estimated at 170 bu/ac, which is 13 bu. higher than 2010. The condition of the corn crop in Illinois is much lower in 2011 (50% good to excellent) compared to 2010 (64% good to excellent) and the condition has been declining since early June due to pollination problems and dry conditions across much of the state. The final corn yield in Illinois could end up in the low 150's.
  • Iowa is estimated at 177 bu/ac, which is 12 bu higher than last year. Pollination problems and recent dry weather could drop the yield 3-5 bushels from current estimate.
  • Nebraska is estimated at 166 bu/ac, which is 11 bushels less than Iowa. I think Nebraska is better than this and it might even be underestimated by a bushel or two.
  • Minnesota is estimated at 166 bu/ac, which is equal to Nebraska, but recent dryness across the southern three tiers of counties in the state could result in a declining corn yield estimate.
  • Ohio is estimated at 158 bu/ac which is only 5 bushels lower than last year. I think Ohio will eventually be in the low 150's.

Reaction to the 2011 August Crop Report - Soybeans

The USDA estimated that 73.8 million acres of soybeans will be harvested for grain (98.4% of the planted acreage) and the nationwide average soybean yield will be 41.4 bu/ac resulting in a total production of 3.06 billion bushels. I think their harvested acreage is too high, but I think their nationwide soybean yield is OK for the following reasons.

2011 August Crop Report - U.S. Soybean Harvested Acreage

  • The soybean harvested acreage is estimated at 73.8 million acres (a decline of 435,000 acres from the July estimate and 98.4% of planted acreage) and very close to the 74.0 million acres I have been using since June. But similar to the corn acreage, I have been very conservative in estimating the soybean harvested acreage and I think the harvested acreage will be lower than what is being currently estimated
  • Oklahoma soybean harvested acreage declined 160,000 - that is OK.
  • Texas soybean harvested acreage declined 35,000 - that is OK.
  • South Dakota soybean harvested acreage declined 190,000 - seems a little high, but OK.
  • North Dakota soybean harvested acreage declined 50,000 - I think North Dakota declined more than this, but we probably won't know until the October report.
  • States where I think the soybean harvested acreage is still too high include:
    • Arkansas could decline 30,000 due to drought.
    • Illinois could decline 20,000 due to prior pounding and drought impacting double crop soybeans.
    • Indiana could decline 40,000 due to prior pounding and drought impacting double crop soybeans.
    • Kansas could decline 100,000 due to severe drought and record high temperatures. USDA indicated that there was no change in the Kansas soybean acreage???
    • Ohio could decline by 20,000 due to pounding.
    • Missouri could decline by 20,000 due to drought impacting double crop soybeans.
    • Missouri River corridor (South Dakota, Iowa, and Nebraska) could decline by 200,000 due to flooding. As with corn, it did not appear that they accounted for the flooding along the Missouri River.
  • Total soybean harvested acreage could decline another 400,000 to 73.4 million, which would be 97.8% of planted.

2011 August Crop Report - U.S. Nationwide Soybean Yield

  • The USDA estimated the nationwide soybean yield at 41.4 bu/ac, which is 2.0 bu/ac less than their July estimate. My estimate for the nationwide soybean yield was 42.0 bu/ac.
  • I think their estimate is too high in just a few states.
  • Arkansas is too high at 36 bu/ac due to drought and it will probably end up in the low 30's.
  • Indiana is too high at 43 bu/ac due to dry conditions and it will probably end up in the low 40's.
  • Ohio seems a little high at 44 bu/ac and it might decline 2 bu/ac.
  • Missouri seemed a little high, but recent rains have helped the soybeans in the state.