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August 1, 2016

Brazilian Wheat Development slower than Normal

The state of Parana is the leading wheat producing state in Brazil and according to the consulting group Trigo & Farinhas, the maturation of the crop is behind schedule this year. The wheat in Parana is 100% planted and farmers reduced their wheat acreage by 15% to 1.14 million hectares.

The Department of Rural Economics (Deral) for the state of Parana estimates that 1% of the wheat in Parana is germinating, 62% is in vegetation development, 31% is flowering, and 6% is heading. Recent frosts in the western part of the state, where some of the wheat was flowering, is expected to result in lower yields. The state of Parana is expected to produce 3.4 million tons of wheat in 2016.

The wheat acreage in Rio Grande do Sul, which is the second largest wheat producing state, is somewhat in dispute. Fecoagro is estimating the acreage at 770,000 hectares while Farsul is estimating the acreage at 800,000 to 850,000 hectares. Production should be in the range of 2.0 to 2.5 million tons. Initial wheat planting in the state was delayed by dry weather and now it is too wet in the state.

The third state in southern Brazil is Santa Catarina and the wheat acreage in the state is estimated at 65,000 hectares with an expected production of 200,000 tons.

Conab is expecting Brazilian farmers to plant 2.14 million hectares of wheat in 2016 (-12.5%) with a total production estimated at 6.28 million tons (+13.5%). The domestic consumption of wheat is estimated at 10.5 million tons with wheat imports estimated at 5.3 million tons.