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August 30, 2016

U.S. Crop Condition Hold Steady or Improve Slightly

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Corn - The condition of the 2016 U.S. corn crop held steady at 75% rated good to excellent. Five states indicated that the corn condition had improved last week, 9 states indicated that the condition had declined last week, and 4 states indicated no change. Most of the improvements were found in the eastern Corn Belt while most of the declines were found in the western Corn Belt. The top five rated corn states are: Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, Iowa, and Colorado. The five lowest rated corn states are: Ohio, South Dakota, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Michigan.

The condition of the corn is the same as it was in early June and I do not envision it changing over the next several weeks. Normally the condition of the corn slowly declines during the summer until stabilizing or slightly improving in early September, but that was not the case this year.

Soybeans - The condition of the 2016 U.S. soybean crop improved 1% last week to 73% rated good to excellent. Eight states indicated that the soybean condition improved last week, 6 states indicated that the soybean condition had declined last week, and 4 states indicated no change. The improvements and declines appeared to be sort of randomly distributed this week. The top five rated soybean states are: Wisconsin, Tennessee, Iowa, Minnesota, and Illinois. The five lowest rated soybean states are: Louisiana, Ohio, Arkansas, South Dakota, and Michigan.

The soybean condition is also almost exactly the same as when the summer started and the crop has been showing slight improvements in recent weeks. This has been a very good August for the soybean crop and I think it might be reflected in a slightly higher yield forecast in the September Crop Report.

Soil Moisture - The nationwide soil moisture held steady last week with 8 states indicating that the soil moisture improved and 9 states indicating that the soil moisture declined last week. Most of the improvements were found in the eastern Corn Belt while most of the declines were found in the western Corn Belt and the Delta. The five states with the highest soil moisture are: Louisiana, Arkansas, Illinois, Minnesota, and Kentucky. The five states with the lowest soil moisture are: South Dakota, Nebraska, Ohio, North Carolina, and Tennessee.

This marks three weeks in a row that the soil moisture has either improved or held steady and the soil moisture is now better than last year and much better than the long term average. There are now very few areas in the Midwest that would be considered significantly short on moisture. The only areas I would consider short at areas of South Dakota (38% short to very short) and Nebraska (40% short to very short).

2016 U.S. State Rankings
CornSoybeans
Weeks in Top FiveWeeks in Bottom FiveWeeks in Top FiveWeeks in Bottom Five
Wisconsin13Ohio11Wisconsin13Arkansas12
Minnesota13S. Dakota11Iowa13Michigan12
Colorado11Michigan11Minnesota12Kansas11
Iowa11Penn.8Tennessee12S. Dakota9
Illinois7Texas8Nebraska6Missouri7
N. Dakota4Kansas7Illinois6Ohio6
Tennessee3Missouri4N. Dakota2Mississippi3
Nebraska3N. Carolina3Kentucky2N. Carolina2
Penn.2Kentucky2S. Dakota1Louisiana2
  Indiana2  Kentucky1
      Illinois1