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December 18, 2018

Brazilian Weather becoming more Uneven

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The current weather concern in Brazil is the extended period of dry weather that has impacted parts of southern Brazil. The driest areas are probably northern Parana, southern Mato Grosso do Sul, and Sao Paulo. Some areas have now gone up to 30 days or more without significant rainfall.

The temperatures during the first part of this dry period were generally below normal, but that was reversed last week and now the temperatures are generally above normal into the upper 90's or even higher. Brazilian meteorologists are blaming the current dry weather on a blocking high pressure system over southeastern Brazil.

There were some scattered rains in southern Brazil over the weekend of less than a half an inch, but they were light and scattered in the driest areas. The heaviest rains of over an inch fell in far southern Rio Grande do Sul. The forecast is calling for some light and scattered rains this week in the driest areas with better chances of rain next week.

Next Friday, December 21st, is the Summer Solstice in the Southern Hemisphere, which means the sun will be directly above the Tropic of Capricorn, which runs through northern Parana. The solar radiation is very intense during this time of the year and temperatures can be very hot especially if there is a high pressure system with a lack of cloud cover and dry air.

More longer range, the Brazilian National Weather Service's forecast for December-January-February is calling for dryer than normal conditions in southern Brazil, isolated dress in western Mato Grosso, irregular rains in northeastern Brazil and more or less normal rainfall across most of central Brazil. I would consider the thee-month forecast as worrisome and maybe that is why Confab remains very conservative in their estimates of the 2018/19 Brazilian crop production. In their December Crop Report released last week, they discussed the three-month summer forecast and the potential for dry pockets.