December 27, 2017

Brazilian Weather Beneficial for Soybean Development

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Brazilian soybeans - The recent weather in Brazil has generally been beneficial for the soybean crop and as a result, I am leaning toward increasing my Brazilian soybean estimate in the near future. The only real problem areas are dry locations in Rio Grande do Sul. Northeastern Brazil has been a little dry the last week or so, but they had good rains during the first half of December and the forecast is calling for more rains next week in northeastern Brazil.

The soybeans in Brazil are flowering and setting pods and the crop is generally rated in good condition. Therefore, after a slow start to the planting season, the conditions have generally improved for the crop. I am hard pressed to identify any significant problem areas in Brazil other than some dry areas of Rio Grande do Sul.

Brazilian corn - The uncertainty about the Brazilian corn crop revolves around the safrinha corn crop. The two main concerns are low corn prices and the potential for delayed planting due to a delay in getting the soybeans planted. Nothing has changed over the last few weeks to alleviate these concerns. Many private analysts have been lowering their Brazilian corn estimates in recent weeks, but Conab maintains an estimate of 92 million tons and the USDA is at 95 million tons. Conab will issue their first survey-based estimate of the safrinha corn crop in their February Crop Report.

The full-season corn was planted later than normal in Minas Gerais and Goias, but recent rains in the area have improved prospects for the crop. The full-season corn in Rio Grande do Sul has not been as fortunate due to recent dry weather especially across the southern portions of the state. In the hardest hit areas, farmers are expecting disappointing corn yields. The full-season corn crop will represent approximately 30% of Brazil's total corn crop depending on the final acreage of the safrinha corn crop.