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December 3, 2019

2019/20 Brazilian Soybeans Approaching 90% Planted

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The Brazilian weather continues to improve, but it is still uneven with pockets of dryness in parts of south-central Brazil and in northeastern Brazil. The weather has improved enough in Brazil to go from a neutral to lower bias to just a neutral bias. Late planted soybeans in Brazil can still have acceptable yields as long as the weather during the remainder of the growing season cooperates. The biggest impact of late planted soybeans will be on the safrinha corn crop.

The 2019/20 Brazilian soybean crop is approximately 88-90% planted compared to 93% last year and 85% average. The soybean planting is essentially complete in Mato Grosso and Parana. The remaining areas to plant are in northeastern Brazil and far southern Brazil.

Mato Grosso - The planting of the 2019/20 soybean crop in Mato Grosso is essentially complete. Some of the earliest planted soybeans in Brazil were in the municipality of Sapezal, which is located in the western part of the state. In spite of an uneven start to the planting season, farmers are still expecting to harvest good soybean yields in the range of 55 sacks per hectare (approximately 49 bu/ac) starting in early January. Virtually all the soybeans in the municipality will be followed by a second crop of either cotton or corn.

Parana - According to the Department of Rural Economics (Deral), the soybeans in Parana are 98% planted with 4% germinating, 84% in vegetative development, 11% flowering, and 1% filling pods. The soybeans in Parana are rated 4% poor, 19% average, and 77% good.

In the municipality of Castro, Parana, which is located in the east-central part of the state, the soybean planting was slower than normal, but the development of the soybeans is now about normal. The president of the Rural Syndicate of Castro is expecting soybean yields to average 66 sacks per hectare (58 bu/ac), which would be an improvement over last year's drought impacted crop. Farmers have forward contracted 25% of their anticipated soybean production compared to 19% last year at this time. Recent prices have been in the range of R$ 85.00 per sack (approximately $9.65 per bushel).

Rio Grande do Sul - According to Emater, soybean planting in Rio Grande do Sul is 72% compared to 84% last year and 80% average. The soybean planting advanced 19% last week and the soybeans are in vegetative development. Excessive rains resulted in some planting delays in the state. For example, in the municipality of Sao Pedro do Sul, which is located in central Rio Grande do Sul, the soybeans are 50% planted compared to 80% last year.

A significant percentage of the soybeans in the state are double cropped after wheat and the wheat harvest in the state is now nearly complete. Even though planting has been somewhat delayed in the state, farmers are still expecting good soybean yields. They are very pleased with the current soybean prices in the state which are in the range of R$ 80 to R$ 82 per sack (approximately $8.85 to $9.10 per bushel).

First soybean rust spores detected in Parana - The extension service of the state of Parana (Emater) announced last week that the first soybean rust spores had been detected in the southeastern part of the state. The spores were detected by the system of 240 collecting devices positioned around the state. No soybean rust has yet been detected in commercial soybean fields in the state and Emater is advising farmers to monitor their fields for the presence of rust. Emater indicated that as soon as rust is detected in their fields, farmers should be prepared to immediately apply an approved fungicide application.

Strong domestic soybean prices in Brazil - Domestic soybean prices in Brazil continue to strengthen due to the weaker Brazilian currency and tight available supplies. The price of old crop soybeans at Brazilian ports is in the range of R$ 90 per sack or more (approximately $10.00 per bushel using an exchange rate of 4.1 reals per dollar). The new crop harvest should start in early January in western Mato Grosso where some of the first soybeans were planted.