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February 10, 2017

Conab Increases Soybean and Corn Estimates in February Report

In their February Crop Report issued on Thursday, Conab released their first survey results concerning the 2016/17 safrinha corn crop in Brazil. They estimated that the safrinha corn acreage would increase 4.7% from 10.53 million hectares in 2015/16 to 11.03 million hectares in 2016/17. The top four states for safrinha corn acreage in 2016/17 are: Mato Grosso with 36.6% of the total, Parana with 20.7%, Mato Grosso do Sul with 15.0%, and Goias with 11.4%. These four states will account for 83% of the total safrinha corn acreage in Brazil.

Conab is estimating that the safrinha corn yield will be 5,310 kg/ha (81.7 bu/ac), which is 37.5% more than the 3,861 kg/ha (59.4 bu/ac) produced in 2015/16. This is the same yield increase they have been using for several months. The total safrinha corn production is estimated at 58.59 million tons or 44% more than the 40.67 million tons produced in 2015/16. If verified, the safrinha corn crop would represent 67% of Brazil's total corn production.

Conab increased their estimate for the full-season corn crop slightly from their January estimate. The full-season corn crop in Brazil is now estimated at 28.81 million tons, which is 0.4 million tons more than their January estimate.

The total Brazilian corn crop is now estimated at 87.4 million tons or an increase of 20.8 million tons compared to the 66.5 million tons produced in 2015/16 (+31.4%). Conab is estimating the 2016/17 Brazilian corn exports at 24.0 million tons, which is unchanged from their January estimate.

Conab is now estimating the 2016/17 Brazilian soybean crop at 105.5 million tons, which is 1.78 million tons more than their January estimate. The 2016/17 Brazilian soybean estimate is 10.1 million tons (+10.6%) more compared to the crop of 2015/16 which was negatively impacted by hot and dry conditions.

The 2016/17 Brazilian soybean acreage increased 1.6% compared to last year to 33.77 million hectares (83.4 million acres). The soybean yield is estimated at 3,125 kg/ha (45.3 bu/ac) which is up 8.9% compared to last year. The 2016/17 soybean crop will easily set a new record for Brazilian soybean production. Conab is estimating the 2016/17 Brazilian soybean exports at 59.0 million tons, which is up 2 million tons from their January estimate.