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February 12, 2020

Conab Increased Brazilian Soy and Corn Estimates in Feb. Report

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

In their February Crop Report, Conab increased their estimate of the 2019/20 Brazilian soybean crop by 1.0 million tons to 123.2 million tons. If verified, it would represent an increase of 8.2 million tons compared to Conab's last year's production estimate of 115.0 million tons. This is another confirmation that Brazil will likely harvest a record large soybean crop in 2020.

The 2019/20 Brazilian soybean acreage is estimated at 36.8 million hectares (90.8 million acres), which represents an increase of 2.6% compared to last year. The average soybean yield is now estimated at 3,349 kg/ha (49.5 bu/ac) which is an increase of 0.4 bu/ac from their January estimate.

Conab's estimate of the 2019/20 Brazilian corn production is 100.4 million tons, which represents an increase of 1.7 million tons compared to their January estimate and it is just slightly larger than the 2018/19 corn crop.

Conab also released their first assessment of the 2019/20 safrinha corn acreage. They are estimating the safrinha corn acreage at 13.22 million hectares (32.6 million acres) or an increase of 2.7% compared to last year. They are estimating the safrinha corn production at 73.2 million tons, which is slightly larger than last year's production of 73.1 million tons.

Brazil's full-season corn production was estimated at 26.0 million tons, which was a decline of 0.6 million tons compared to last month. The main reason for the decline was dry weather in southern Brazil especially the state of Rio Grande do Sul that negatively impacted the corn during its critical reproductive phase.

The third corn crop in Brazil, which is generally grown by small family farmers in northeastern Brazil, was estimated at 1.1 million tons, which was unchanged from last month.

Conab is currently estimating that the full-season corn crop would equate to 26% of Brazil's total corn production, while the safrinha crop would equate to 73% of the total and the third crop would equate to 1% of the total.