February 14, 2018

Brazilian Full-Season Corn 11% Harvested, Safrinha 15% Planted

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

In their February Crop Report, Conab is estimating the full-season corn production at 24.7 million tons, which would be down 5.7 million tons compared to last year (-18.8%). They also released their first survey-based assessment of the safrinha corn crop in the February Report and Conab is estimating that the safrinha corn acreage will decline 5.6% and the safrinha yield will decline 1.8%. I think the safrinha corn acreage will eventually decline more than 5.6%, but I can live with that number for now.

I defiantly think the safrinha corn yield will decline more than just 1.8% compared to last year. A 1.8% decline in yield represents only a reduction of 0.4 bu/ac. Last year was a very good year for the safrinha corn and this year is not getting off to a good start, and yet they only reduced the yield by 0.4 bu/ac! I think that is way too optimistic.

The full-season corn harvest in Brazil is 11% complete according to AgRural, which compares to 12% last year and the 5-year average. The full-season corn in Rio Grande do Sul is 35% harvested and it is 1% harvested in Parana.

AgRural is estimating the Brazilian safrinha corn crop is 15% planted compared to 27% last year and 19% for the 5-year average. Once again, Mato Grosso is pushing the planting pace for the safrinha corn and Parana is holding it back.

In Mato Grosso, the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) is reporting that 27% of the safrinha corn has been planted, which represents an advance of 10.7% for the week. This compares to 46.7% planted last year and the 5-year average of 25.4%. The most advanced planting is in the mid-north region where 42% of the corn has been planted. This represents an advance of 15% for the week and it compares to last year when 66.4% of the crop had been planted in the mid-north region. The slowest planting pace is in northeastern Mato Grosso where 5.4% of the crop has been planted (27% was planted last year at this time).

In Parana, Deral estimates that 2% of the safrinha corn has been planted compared to 16% planted last year. Due to the delayed safrinha corn planting, the Secretary of Agriculture for the state of Parana recently extended the dates of when farmers may plant their safrinha corn and still be eligible for crop insurance and state programs. In areas of the state where February 10th was the last day to plant safrinha corn, the state has extended the date to February 20th. If farmers cannot get their safrinha planted in time, they may opt for more wheat or oats instead.