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February 25, 2020

2019/20 Brazil Soybean Harvest slows to 5-year Average Pace

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The weather continues to be wet across central Brazil and generally dry across southern Brazil. The wet weather had delayed the soybean harvest somewhat and it has resulted in some localized concerns about seed quality, but both of these concerns have been localized.

Arc Mercosul reported that the Brazilian soybeans were 34.2% harvested last Friday, which is about average but below last year when 46.3% of the soybeans had been harvested by this date. The harvest advanced 6.8% last week, which is about half as much as the last few weeks.

Mato Grosso - According to the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea), farmers in Mato Grosso had harvested 73% of their soybeans late last week compared to 80% last year and 55.7% average. This represents an advance of 15% for the week. The harvest is most advanced in the western part of the state where 89% of the soybeans have been harvested. The harvest is slowest in the northeastern part of the state where 48% of the soybeans have been harvested.

Parana - The soybeans in Parana were 22% harvested earlier last week and the Department of Rural Economics (Deral) increased their estimate of the 2019/20 soybean production in the state of Parana last week by 0.66 million tons to a record production of 20.36 million tons. If verified, it would surpass the old record of 20 million tons produced during the 2016/17 growing season. Deral estimates that 51% of the soybeans were mature last week and that 22% of the soybeans had been harvested. The soybean yields obtained thus far are in the range of 3,819 kg/ha (56.5 bu/ac). It appears that the later planted soybeans will be higher yielding than the early planted soybeans that experienced some reduced plant populations due to dry weather.

This would represent an increase of 26% compared to last year's drought impacted crop. Farmers in Parana have sold approximately 30% of their anticipated soybean production compared to 20% at this time for the last three years. Soybean prices over the last two weeks averaged R$ 77.00 per sack (approximately $8.50 per bushel), which is 12% higher than last year at this time when it averaged R$ 69.00 per sack (approximately $7.80 per bushel).

Rio Grande do Sul - Irregular rains in the state of Rio Grande do Sul is expected to result in disappointing soybean yields. Ironically, the earlier planted soybeans may end being the lowest yielding because dry weather during December and early January impacted the crop as it was flowering and setting pods. The soybeans that were planted later during the month of November were still in vegetative development during the dry period. In the central part of the state, the forecasted rains for last week ended up being very disappointing and now the forecast looks dry going forward. Temperatures were below normal over the weekend with some temperatures in the upper 30's.

The soybeans in Rio Grande do Sul are 58% filling pods and 6% mature

Goias - In the municipality of Rio Verde, which is located in southwestern Goias, farmers have harvested about half of their soybeans. Recent prolonged periods of rain have delayed the harvest and resulted in some quality concerns. This is one of the few areas in Brazil where there are quality concerns for the soybeans. Most farmers in the region are expecting somewhat lower yields compared to last year.