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February 6, 2019

Outside of Saturated Areas, 2018/19 Argentina Crops doing Fine

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Argentina Soybeans - It is difficult to estimate the soybean production in Argentina because some of the soybean acreage was lost due to localized flooding and saturated conditions, but the soybean yields outside of the saturated areas should be very good.

All of the soybeans in Argentina have been planted and the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates that the soybean acreage will be 17.7 million hectares, which is down 200,000 hectares from their last estimate. The Rosario Exchange estimates that the soybean acreage in the core production areas will be 4.99 million hectares, which is down 460,000 hectares from their initial estimate. As you can see from the different estimates, the soybean acreage will be down from initial expectations, we just don't know by how much.

In their weekly report, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange rated the soybeans as being 11.5% poor to very poor and 49.5% good to excellent, which is an improvement compared to last week. The soil moisture for the soybeans is rated 3.5% short to very short and 66.8% optimum to surplus, which is about the same as last week. Approximately 17% of the soybeans are rated as having surplus soil moisture compared to 14% last week.

The soybeans in general are approximately 25% setting pods and 5% filling pods. The earlier planted soybeans are starting to fill pods and the later planted soybeans are blooming and starting to set pods.

Argentina Corn - The situation for the corn crop in Argentina is complicated. In some areas they have not been able to finish planting due to the wet conditions, while outside of the saturated areas, the corn yields are going to be very good. The corn in Argentina was not impacted as much by the saturated conditions as the soybeans. The weather has generally been good especially for the early planted corn and the yields of the early planted corn could be very good. The yields of the later planted corn is yet to be determined, but I am now more optimistic concerning the corn crop in Argentina.

The 2018/19 Argentina corn crop is 96.8% planted, with all the remaining corn to be planted in far northern Argentina where approximately 170,000 hectares have not yet been planted. They hope to finish planting in about the next 10 days.

Argentine corn in general is rated 5.7% poor to very poor and 60.4% good to excellent, which is a slight improvement over last week. The soil moisture for the corn is rated 4.6% short to very short and 56.1% optimum to surplus. Approximately 11% of the corn has surplus soil moisture compared to 7% last week. The corn in general is 43% pollinating, but that does not tell the entire story. The early planted corn is 38% filling grain and 6% mature, while the later planted corn is approximately 15% pollinating.