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February 6, 2020

2019/20 Brazilian Safrinha Corn Acreage Uncertain

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The safrinha corn acreage in Brazil is still uncertain. There is a strong price incentive to plant corn, but the late soybean harvest is going to push some of the safrinha corn planting to the very limit of the planting window. There should not be much of a problem getting the safrinha corn planted in central Brazil. The problem is going to be in the more southern states such as Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul where some farmers have already said they will reduce their safrinha corn acreage.

Mato Grosso - The safrinha corn in Mato Grosso is 22% planted compared to 29.8% last year and 19.3% average according to the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea). Imea is expecting the safrinha corn acreage in the state to increase 4.9% to 5.1 million hectares.

In the municipality of Nova Mutum, which is located in south-central Mato Grosso, 12% of the safrinha corn is planted and the early conditions are favorable. The demand for corn from new corn ethanol plants is supporting the local corn prices. Farmers in the area are already forward contracting some of their 2020/21 corn crop.

Parana - The Department of Rural Economics in the State of Parana (Deral), is estimating the 2019/20 safrinha corn production at 12.3 million tons, which is down 7% from last year. They are estimating that the safrinha corn acreage will decline 4% compared to last year to 2.15 million hectares due to delayed planting. Currently the corn is 4% planted compared to 30% last year.

Mato Grosso do Sul - The delayed harvest of the soybeans is going to push some of the safrinha corn planting past the ideal planting window which closes about the third week of February, which is only about 20 days away. The last date safrinha corn can be planted is about March 10th. Aprosoja is advising farmers not to risk planting safrinha corn past the recommended date. Instead, they are recommending a mixture of cover crops to help improve degraded areas and improve the productivity of future crops.

In the municipality of Caarapo, which is located in southern Mato Grosso do Sul, the President of the local Rural Syndicate is expecting the safrinha corn acreage to decline 20% due to the late soybean harvesting.