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February 7, 2018

Brazil Soybeans 6.4% Harvested, Mato Grosso 20% Harvested

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The Brazilian soybean harvest is 6.4% complete compared to 10.1% last year and the 5-year average of 6.3% according to AgRural. The soybean harvest is most advanced in Mato Grosso with 20% harvested according to the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea). This compares to 30% last year and 20% for the 5-year average. The harvest is most advanced in the western part of the state at 31% complete (last year was 40%) and it is the slowest in the northeastern part of the state at 2% complete (last year was 8%). The biggest production area is north-central Mato Grosso where the harvest is 30% complete (last year was 45%).

A lot of soybean fields in central Mato Grosso are now extremely wet or with standing water. Thus far, there are not believed to be any reduced yields in Mato Grosso due to the wet conditions, but that will depend on how much it rains going forward.

The soybean harvest is just now getting under way in Goias, Parana, and Mato Grosso do Sul and the harvest pace in those states should pick up with the return of dryer weather.

The one remaining area in Brazil where dry weather is a concern is the state of Rio Grande do Sul. The southern part of the state has been very dry and in fact, numerous cities have declared a state of emergency and water restrictions have been put in place. In the southernmost part of the state, farmers feel their soybean yields have already been reduced by 20% due to reduced plant populations. The eventual soybean yields in Rio Grande do Sul will be determined by the weather during the month of February when the crop is filling pods. Rio Grande do Sul is generally one of the lowest yielding states in Brazil due to lower soil fertility and potentially erratic weather.

Another traditionally lower yielding location is northeastern Brazil, but the weather in northeastern Brazil has generally been very good and there is a lot more rain in the forecast with generally cooler temperatures. This is a very good forecast for the region and it is possible that the soybean yields in northeastern Brazil in 2017/18 could equal the record high yields of last year.