January 10, 2013

Conab Expects Normal Crop Yields Despite Dryness

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

According to officials from Conab, the weather in much of Brazil is dryer than normal and hotter than normal, but the conditions are still good enough to achieve normal yields. They feel that if there will be any losses, they should be localized in nature.

The state of Goias is one of the states experiencing below normal rainfall. The month of December ended with approximately 40% the normal rainfall in many parts of the state and the dryer than normal trend is expected to continue into the month of January. The normal rainfall for the month of December is generally about 300 mm (12 inches), but this year the rainfall was only 120 mm (4.8 inches). According to technicians from Faeg (Farmer Association of Goias), soybean production could be the most impacted by the dryer weather.

The peak of the rainy season generally occurs in January, but indications are that January could also end up being dryer than normal. For soybeans, the timing of the rainfall is just as important as the total amount of rainfall. Soybeans can achieve normal yields if the scattered showers are frequent in nature thus avoiding any prolonged periods of dryness. That has been the pattern thus far this growing season and farmers are hoping that the weather will at least be that good moving forward.

The near term forecast for the next five days in Goias is for improved chances of rainfall in the form of afternoon showers.