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January 11, 2017

Conab Increases Brazil Crop Estimates, Survey Several Weeks Old

In their latest monthly crop report released on Tuesday, January 10th, Conab increased their estimates for both the 2016/17 soybean and corn crops. The survey for this report was conducted several weeks ago, probably before the recent dry weather moved into central and eastern Brazil.

The 2016/17 Brazilian soybean estimate was increased 1.3 million tons from their December estimate to 103.7 million tons. The soybean acreage is now estimated at 33.78 million hectares (83.4 million acres), which was actually down 116,000 hectares from their December estimate. The soybean acreage now represents an increase of 1.6% compared to 2015/16. The soybean yields were increased from 3,022 kg/ha in December to 3,072 kg/ha in January (43.8 bu/ac in December to 44.5 bu/ac in January.

The total 2016/17 Brazilian corn estimate was increased 0.67 million tons from December to 84.4 million tons. The increase came solely from improved yields from the full-season corn crop. The full-season corn yields are now estimated at 5,110 kg/ha (78.6 bu/ac) compared to 4,999 kg/ha estimated in December (76.9 bu/ac).

No adjustment was made from last month to the safrinha corn crop. Conab has not yet conducted a field survey concerning the safrinha corn acreage. Their first survey will be conducted later this month and it will be released with their February Crop Report. For now, they are just carrying forward the 2015/16 safrinha corn acreage from last season (10.53 million hectares or 26.0 million acres). Most analysts feel the safrinha corn acreage will increase from last year and the estimates range from a 4% increase to a 15% increase.

Conab does feel that the safrinha corn yields will improve over the drought impacted crop of last year. They are currently estimating the 2016/17 safrinha corn yield at 5,323 kg/ha (81.9 bu/ac), which is 37.7% more than the 3,865 kg/ha registered last year (59.5 bu/ac).