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January 14, 2020

Brazil Soybeans 0.4% Harvested vs 2.1% Last Year, 0.7% Average

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

According to AgRural, the 2019/20 soybeans in Brazil were 0.4% harvested as of late last week compared to 2.1% last year and 0.7% for the five year average. In the state of Mato Grosso, the soybeans are 1.7% harvested with the harvest in Parana just getting started.

The biggest concern in Brazil was dry weather in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, but the state received good rains over the weekend. In some areas, it was the first good rain since about December 1st. It probably was not enough to completely recharge the soil moisture deficits, but it helped for sure.

Mato Grosso - The early soybean harvest is underway in Mato Grosso with 1.7% harvested compared to 5.6% last year and 2.6% average.1.5% harvested. Early yields are reported to be a little better than average. In the municipality of Nova Ubirata, which is located in south-central Mato Grosso, the early soybean harvest has started especially for farmers who will plant a second crop of cotton. Early yields are a little better than expected in the range of 57 sacks per hectare (50.6 bu/ac), which is slightly better than last year's yield of 56 sacks per hectare (49.7 bu/ac).

The first case of soybeans rust was confirmed in Mato Grosso last week. Farmers are being advised to closely monitor their fields and be prepared to apply a recommended fungicide as soon as symptoms appear. The best way to avoid soybean rust is to plant an early maturing soybean variety (95 day maturity) as early as possible after the end of the soybean-free period. The average soybean maturity in Mato Grosso is in the range of 110-115 days and farmers rarely plant soybeans with more than 120 day maturity.

Parana - The soybeans in Parana are 17% in vegetative development, 28% flowering, 53% filling pods, and 2% mature. The crop is rated 2% poor, 10% average, and 88% good. The early harvest has started in Parana with yields a little disappointing. The earlier planted soybeans were impacted by dry weather at planting that resulted in less than ideal plant population. The later planted soybeans are expected to have better yields.

Rio Grande do Sul - Over the weekend, the soybeans in Rio Grande do Sul received their best rain in over a month. It was not enough to completely overcome the moisture deficits, but they will certainly help the crop. The soybean crop has lost some of its yield potential in the state, it's just a matter of how much and if the state will continue to receive rains. Losses are typically being estimated in the range of 10-20%.

For example, in the municipality of Carazinha, which is located in northern Rio Grande do Sul, the early maturing soybeans are going to have disappointing yields even though the region did receive good rains over the weekend. The earlier planted soybeans were setting pods and filling pods during the dry weather. The double crop soybeans, which were planted later, could still recuperate given the rains over the weekend.

Goias - In the municipality of Jatai, which is located in southwestern Goias, rains have returned after about 20 days of dry weather. The President of the local Rural Syndicate is expecting the soybean harvest to start about January 20th and he is expecting soybean yields in the range of 60 sacks per hectare (53.2 bu/ac). Soybean prices in the region are in the range of R$ 76.00 per sack (approximately $8.65 per bushel), which will allow producers to turn a profit on their soybean production.

Conab - In their January Crop Report released last week, Conab increased their estimate of the 2019/20 Brazilian soybean crop by 1.1 million tons to 122.22 million. If realized, this would represent an increase of 6.3% compared to the 115.02 million tons produced last year. This would be a new record soybean production for Brazil. The previous record was 119.28 million tons produced in 2017/18.

Conab is currently estimating the 2019/20 Brazilian soybean acreage at 36.79 million hectares (90.87 million acres), which is unchanged from last month. This would represent an increase of 2.6% compared to last year. The current soybean yield is estimated at 3,322 kg/ha (49.1 bu/ac), which is 0.4 bu/ac higher than last month.

WASDE - In the January WASDE Report, the USDA estimated the 2019/20 Brazilian soybean production at 123.0 million tons, which was unchanged from December.