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January 14, 2021

Conab Lowers Brazil Corn Stocks, Increases Corn Imports for 2021

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Corn supplies at tight in Brazil and they are expected to remain tight through 2021. In their January Crop Report, Conab lowered their estimate of the 2020/21 Brazil corn production 0.27 million tons to 102.31 million, which is down 0.2% from last year. The reduction was the result of a lower estimate for the full-season corn production. Conab carried forward their estimates for the 2019/20 safrinha corn production and they will issue their first official estimate of the 2020/21 safrinha corn production in their February Crop Report.

Conab estimated that the domestic corn consumption in Brazil will increased from 68.7 million tons in 2019/20 to 71.8 million tons in 2020/21. The amount of Brazilian corn imports was increased from 1.1 million tons in 2019/20 to 1.3 million tons in 2020/21.

The Brazilian corn carryover in 2020/21 is expected to decline 32% compared to 2019/20. The carryover from the 2019/20 season is estimated at 10.8 million tons and the carryover from the 2020/21 season is estimated at 7.3 million tons or enough corn for about 5 weeks.

The tight supplies in 2020, coupled with record corn exports, resulted in very strong domestic corn prices in 2020 and the supply situation is expected to remain tight through 2021 resulting in continued high domestic corn prices.