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January 14, 2021

Conab Trims Brazil's 2020/21 Soybean and Corn Estimates

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

In their January Crop Report, Conab trimmed both their 2020/21 soybean and corn estimates. The soybean estimate was lowered 0.76 million tons from 134.45 million in December to 133.69 million in January. The Brazilian corn estimate was lowered 0.27 million tons from 102.58 million in December to 102.31 million in January.

Conab is now estimating the 2020/21 Brazilian soybean acreage at 38.19 million hectares (94.3 million acres), which is up 17,000 hectares (42,000 acres) from their December estimate. If verified, this would equate to an increase of 3.4% compared to last year.

The Brazilian soybean yield is now estimated at 3,500 kg/ha (52.1 bu/ac), which is down from last month's estimate of 3,522 kg/ha (52.4 bu/ac). The 2019/20 soybean yield was 3,379 kg/ha (50.3 bu/ac). The 2020/21 soybean production is projected to be 8.8 million tons larger than last year or an increase of 7.1%.

The 2020/21 Brazilian corn production was trimmed slightly due to a lower estimate for the full-season corn production. The full-season corn production was lowered 0.27 million tons from 24.18 million in December to 23.91 million in January. The full-season corn acreage was increased 27,000 hectares (66,690 acres) from their December estimate to 4.17 million hectares (10.29 million acres). The full-season corn yield was estimated at 5,731 kg/ha (91.1 bu/ac), which was down from 5,835 kg/ha (92.7 bu/ac) in December.

There were no changes made to the safrinha corn acreage (13.75 million hectares or 33.96 million acres), the safrinha corn yield (5,580 kg/ha or 88.7 bu/ac), or the safrinha corn production (76.76 million tons). Additionally, the estimate for the third corn crop was left unchanged at 1.63 million tons.

Conab will issue their first official estimate of the 2020/21 safrinha corn crop in their February Crop Report. Currently, the full-season corn crop represents 23.3% of Brazil's total corn production, with the safrinha corn crop representing 75% and the third corn crop representing 1.5%.