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January 22, 2020

Brazil Soybean Harvest 1.8% Complete vs 6.1% in 2019

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The weather last week in Brazil was favorable in southern Brazil where good rains were recorded in Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, and Parana. In some areas, these were the best rains in over a month. The rains came too late for much of the corn, but they did help the developing soybeans. The forecast is calling for generally dryer weather this week in southern Brazil.

In northeastern Brazil it was dry last week, but the forecast is calling for improved chances of rainfall this week. The summer rains in northeastern Brazil continue to be below normal with uneven coverage. There are some estimates that the soybean acreage will end up being less than what was anticipated due to dry weather.

The 2019/20 Brazilian soybean crop is 1.8% harvested compared to 6.1% last year according to AgRural. The harvest is most advanced in the state of Mato Grosso where 5.8% of the soybeans have been harvested. The soybean harvest is just getting started in the states of Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goias, Sao Paulo, and Minas Gerais. In most states, the soybean harvest pace will pick up in February.

Mato Grosso - The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) reported that the soybeans in Mato Grosso were 5.8% harvested late last week compared to 12.3% last year and 6.6% average. The fastest harvest pace is in central Mato Grosso where 8% of the soybeans have been harvested. Early yield reports out of Mato Grosso are generally a little better than expected, but not uniformly so.

Parana - The soybean specialists for the Department of Rural Economics (Deral) stated that the soybean planting in Parana was 2-3 weeks later than normal, so therefore, the soybean harvest will also start 2-3 weeks later than normal as well. The soybeans in Parana are 11% in vegetative development, 27% flowering, 57% filling pods, and 5% mature. The soybeans are rated 2% poor, 10% average, and 88% good.

The soybean harvest in Parana is in the range of 1% compared to 2018 when the soybean harvest in Parana had already surpassed 5% by this time. This year, the soybean harvest in Parana will start in February with a large harvest volume expected in March.

Rio Grande do Sul - The state did receive more rain last week , but in order to avoid further losses, more regular rains with better distribution will be needed for the remainder of the growing season. According to Professor Glencar Junior Zanon from the Federal University of Santa Maria in Rio Grande do Sul, the soybean crop will require an additional 500-600 mm of rainfall (20 to 25 inches) before harvest begins in March or April. Ideally, most of the rain should occur in January and February when the crop's yield potential will be largely determined.

The soybean planting in Rio Grande do Sul was delayed due to dry soils and according to Professor Zenon, every day that soybean planting is delayed past November 4th, the soybean yield potential declines 26 kg/ha per day (.38 bu/ac per day).

Last week, numerous farm organizations sent a letter to the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul asked for help in mitigating the impact of the dry weather in the state. They also asked the Governor to request aid from the Federal Government and various Ministries. Some of the help they asked for included extending the deadline for planting soybeans to January 31st and the deadline for corn planting to February 29th. They also requested that farmer loan payments due in 2020 be extended and that emergency lines of credit be established for cooperatives and input suppliers that rely on farmer payments.

Minas Gerais - The soybean yields are already being reduced due to lack of rainfall especially in the northern part of the state. According to the President of the Grain Commission of the Agriculture and Livestock Federation of Minas Gerais (Faeg), the amount of losses is yet to be determined, and if the state could receive rain yet this week, soybean yields could still be in the range of 50-60 sacks per hectare (44-53 bu/ac). Local soybean prices are good in the range of R$ 80.00 per sacks (approximately $9.10 per bushel).

Northeastern Brazil - The weather last week in northeastern Brazil was generally dry once again. The forecast is calling for improved chances of rainfall this week in northeastern Brazil.