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January 25, 2019

Brazilian Farmers have sold 33.7% of their 2018/19 Soy Production

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Brazilian farmers have been very aggressive in selling their 2017/18 soybean crop. According to the consulting firm Datagro, the sale of the 2017/18 soybean crop has reached 99%, which is more than the 94% sold last year at this time. It is also more than the previous record of 98% sold in 2013 and 2015.

The record sales pace is no surprise given the very high premiums that were being paid at Brazilian ports in recent months due to the strong demand from China. Now that the 2018/19 soybean harvest has gotten underway, those high premiums are basically gone.

Sales of the 2018/19 Brazilian soybean crop now stand at 33.7%, which is slightly higher than last year at this time when 32.6% had been sold, but slower than the 5-year average of 36.6%.

Sales of the 2017/18 full-season corn crop have not been quite as aggressive. Datagro reported that Brazilian farmers have sold 96% of last year's crop compared to 95% a year ago at this time. Farmers have sold 86% of their 2018/19 safrinha corn production, which is slightly below the 5-year average of 88%.

Brazilian farmers have just started to harvest some of their 2018/19 full-season corn crop and they have forward contracted 14% of their anticipated production compared to 4% last year. Farmers have also just started to plant their 2018/19 safrinha corn and they have forward contracted 24% of their anticipated production compared to 4% last year at this time.

Safrinha corn production will represent approximately 70% of Brazil's total corn production in 2018/19. Farmers have now started to plant their safrinha corn after the soybeans are harvested. The ideal planting window for the safrinha corn in central Brazil closes about the third week of February. The safrinha corn will pollinate in late March or early April and harvest will begin in late May or early June.