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January 29, 2020

Planting Nearly Complete in Argentina, Dry Forecast Worries

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

2019/20 Argentina Soybeans - The weather last week in Argentina maintained adequate soil moisture especially in the central and northern locations. The forecast for this week is generally hotter and dryer especially in the southern locations. Some of the temperatures over the weekend were in the mid-90's, but temperatures are now cooler.

The soybeans in Argentina were 97.6% planted late last week compared to 99.2% average according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. This represents an advance of 2.3% for the week. The only soybeans left to plant are in the far northern part of the country.

The Argentina soybeans are 47% blooming and 18% setting pods compared to 24% average. The soybeans are rated 65.5% good to excellent, which is an improvement compared to last week. The soil moisture for the soybeans is rated 3% short and 41.7% optimum to surplus, which is an improvement compared to last week.

2019/20 Argentina Corn - Soil moisture remains mostly adequate for the corn crop in Argentina, but the forecast looks dryer especially in the southern locations.

The corn in Argentina was 94.7% planted late last week compared to 93.6% average according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. This represents an advance of 3.3% for the week. The only corn left to plant is in the far northern part of Argentina.

The corn in general is 49% pollinating, 20% filling grain, and 2.3% mature. The early planted corn is 32% filling grain and 3.7% mature, whereas the late planted corn is approximately 10% pollinating. The corn is rated 59.3% good to excellent, which is an improvement compared to last week. The soil moisture for the corn is rated 4.7% short and 54.3% optimum to surplus, which is an improvement compared to last week.

The U.S. Attaché in Argentina estimated the 2019/20 Argentina corn crop at 48.0 million tons, which is 2 million tons lower than the latest USDA estimate. The attaché's corn acreage is 100,000 hectares lower than the USDA and their yield estimate is 2.4% lower than the USDA. They feel the change in political power in Argentina convinced farmers to reduce their corn acreage by 200-400,000 hectares and to plant more soybeans instead. They indicated that industry estimates the 2019/20 corn acreage in Argentina at close to 6.0 million hectares.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange is estimating the corn acreage at 6.3 million hectares and the Grain Exchange has not yet issued an estimate for the 2019/20 corn production.