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January 31, 2019

Early Soy Yields out of Mato Grosso do Sul and Goias Disappoint

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Farmers in Brazil are harvesting their 2018/19 soybean crop at a very fast pace. According to AgResource, as of January 30th, Brazilian farmers had harvested 21% of the 2018/19 soybeans compared to 6% last year and 8.6% for the 5-year average. The harvest was most advanced in Mato Grosso with 44% harvested followed by Mato Grosso do Sul with 29% harvested, Parana with 24%, and Goias with 15%.

Technicians from the consulting firm Agroconsult recently toured the states of Mato Grosso do Sul and Goias and they reported that he soybean yields in those two states were highly variable. In northeastern Mato Grosso do Sul, farmers at the start of the growing season expected their soybeans to yield 70 to 80 sacks per hectare (62 to 71 bu/ac), but initial yields are more in the range of 50 to 60 sacks per hectare (44 to 53 bu/ac). Some of the farmers that were especially hard hit by the hot and dry weather are reporting yields as low as 40 to 50 sacks per hectare (35 to 44 bu/ac).

The situation in Chapadao do Ceu in southwestern Goias is even worse. This region had two periods of dry weather during the growing season. During the month of December, the region basically went 30 days without rain. They then received some limited rains around the first of the year, but they then endured another 15 days without rain during January. During both of these periods, the temperatures were very hot.

This region is generally very productive with soybean yields as high as 70 bu/ac, but this year, some farmers are reporting losses as high as 50% especially for the early maturing soybeans that were filling pods in December. They did receive some rain over this past weekend, but the hot and dry weather is expected to return later this week.

In the municipality of Mineiros, which is located in southwestern Goias, the soybean yields are in the range of 48 to 50 sacks per hectare (42.6 to 44 bu/ac) compared to 60 sacks per hectare (53 bu/ac) at the start of the harvest last year.