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January 7, 2020

Full-season Corn Impacted by Dry Weather in Southern Brazil

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Rio Grande do Sul full-season corn - According to the technical director of Emater/RS, the corn crop in the state is 95% planted and the corn is 29% in vegetative development, 16% pollinating, 37% filling grain, 17% mature, and 1% harvested. Emater estimates that farmers will plant 777,000 hectares of corn, which is approximately 18.7% of Brazil's full-season corn acreage.

The director is worried about the irregular development of the corn due to the hot and dry conditions in the state. In the hardest hit areas, the corn yields will be down at least 30% maybe more. The state has probably already lost one million tons of corn or about 15% of its anticipated production. A state of emergency has been declared in some municipalities due to a lack of water for animals and people.

Meteorologists in Brazil have indicated that without an El Nino or La Nina, the weather in Rio Grande do Sul tends to be dryer than normal and hotter than normal. There have been extended periods without rain thus far this growing season with temperatures near 40°C (104°F). Therefore, the corn losses in the state could continue to mount in the weeks ahead.

Parana full-season corn - The Department of Rural Economics for the State of Parana (Deral) rates the full-season corn as 7% average and 93% good. The crop is 31% in vegetative development, 38% pollinating, 30% filling grain, and 1% mature.

Mato Grosso safrinha corn - Farmers in Mato Grosso are starting to harvest their early maturing soybeans and they will probably plant cotton after these first fields of soybeans are harvested. It won't be very long though until some farmers in the state start to plant their safrinha corn. The ideal planting window for safrinha corn in the state closes about the third week of February, but corn planting might stretch into early March if the weather is good and the corn price is strong.

The President of the Rural Syndicate in the municipality of Sorriso in central Mato Grosso is advising farmers not to forward contract their anticipated corn production because he thinks corn prices will improve going forward.

Parana safrinha corn - The director of the Soybean & Corn Producers Association of Parana (Aprosoja/PR) expects a small reduction in the state's safrinha corn acreage. Several months ago, he was expecting a larger reduction in safrinha corn acreage due to the delayed planting of the soybeans. He has since modified his estimate due to the strong corn prices that might encourage farmers to risk planting safrinha corn after the ideal window has closed about the third week of February. The "drop dead" date for planting safrinha corn in Parana is approximately March 10-15.