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July 24, 2019

U.S. Soybean Condition Unchanged at 54% Good to Excellent

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The weather last week was probably better for the soybeans than what had been forecasted as long as the crop did not receive too much rainfall. The soybean condition held steady at 54% rated good to excellent. The soybean development continues to be slower than normal with many soybeans still very short in stature. A lot of the later planted soybeans are essentially double-cropped soybeans since they were planted so late. These later planted soybeans will need good weather during August and September and a prolonged growing season in order to achieve anything close to a normal yield.

The soybeans are 40% flowering compared to 76% last year and 66% for the 5-year average. In most of the major states, the soybeans are 25-45% behind average in flowering. Seven percent of the crop is setting pods compared to 41% last year and 28% for the five year average.

The USDA's Risk Management Agency indicated last week that there could be 2-3 million acres of prevent plant soybeans. Even though we got a little more information concerning the soybean planted acreage, I still think the soybean acreage is a big unknown. Soybeans can be planted later than corn, so it was assumed that the last planted acres went to soybeans, but there is talk that some farmers opted at the last minute to plant corn instead of soybeans. So, it is very unclear what the soybean planted acreage will end up being.

Everyone is guessing at the 2019 U.S. soybean acreage, so I left my soybean planted acreage unchanged this week at 82.0 million acres.

As with the corn, I am more concerned about the later planted soybeans that have been developing slowly. The latest planted soybeans will need a later than-normal-frost in order to reach physiological maturity and an early frost could be very bad indeed.