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July 29, 2020

2020 U.S. Corn Estimates moving Higher

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The 2020 U.S. corn estimate was increased 1.5 bushels this week to 178.5 bu/ac and I have a neutral to higher bias going forward.

Weather last week was generally beneficial with rain and lower temperatures. There are still areas that need rain including Ohio, eastern Indiana, the western half of Iowa, and pockets of Nebraska, Minnesota, and Kansas. The states that continue to do well are Minnesota, Wisconsin, South Dakota, Nebraska, and the eastern half of Iowa. The state that has improved the most over the last several weeks would have to be Illinois.

The dryness in Iowa is probably the most important dry area. Last Thursday's Drought Monitor Map showed about 10% of Iowa in significant drought and about 40-50% abnormally dry. That was as of the middle of last week and the situation may have improved somewhat since then.

Condition of the 2020 U.S. corn crop improved 3% last week to 72% rated good to excellent. That is a big increase in the weekly condition rating especially for the last week in July when the crop conditions are usually declining.

The 2020 U.S. corn is 82% silking compared to 51% last year and 75% average. The corn is 22% dough compared to 11% last year and 17% average. The vast majority of the corn pollinated successfully so now the crop will start filling grain.

The weather has improved compared to several weeks ago. Temperatures have been hot, but they have not been exceptionally hot and the hot temperatures have not persisted for prolonged periods of time. The forecast now looks more benign with cooler temperatures and scattered rains, which should be beneficial for the corn as the crop starts to fill grain.

Hot nighttime temperatures during June and July have been a concern, but there appears to be less of those hot nights going forward, at least in the near term. Hot temperatures at night are more of a concern when the corn is filling grain and the corn is just now starting the grain filling process.