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July 9, 2015

June Acreage Report Overestimates Harvested Acreage

Now that the June Acreage Report is behind us, I think we need to make some adjustments to the numbers released by the USDA.

Corn

  • I am going to use a corn planted acreage of 88.6 million acres, which is 300,000 less than the June Acreage Report. This includes unplanted corn in the southwestern Corn Belt where NASS is going to conduct a resurvey for the August Crop Report.
  • Due to the excessive wetness, I am going to use a corn harvested percentage of 91.0%. The USDA is using 91.2% and last year it was 91.7%.
  • Therefore, the 2015 corn harvested acreage is estimated at 80.62 million acres or 480,000 less than what was estimated in the June Acreage Report.
  • With a yield of 163.0 bu/ac, the total corn production is estimated at 13.14 billion bushels.

Soybeans

  • I am going to use a soybean planted acreage of 83.6 million acres which is 1.5 million acres less than the June Acreage Report. This includes unplanted full-season soybeans as well as unplanted double crop soybeans.
  • Due to the excessive wetness, I am going to use a soybean harvested percentage of 98.7%. The USDA is using 99.18% and last year it was 99.23%.
  • Therefore, the soybean harvested acreage is estimated at 82.51 million acres which is 1,890,000 less than what was estimated in the June Acreage Report.
  • With a yield of 43.5 bu/ac, the total soybean production is estimated at 3.58 billion bushels.

Prior to the release of the June Acreage Report, my soybean harvested acreage was 84.4 million acres and the June Acreage Report estimated the soybean harvested acreage at 84.4 million acres. Prior to the report, my corn harvested acreage was 81.4 million acres and the June Acreage Report estimated the corn harvested acreage at 81.1 million acres.

So, our initial estimates were very close, but things have changed since the survey was conducted for the June report and as a result, I have adjusted downward my harvested acreage for both crops. I think the USDA will also lower their harvested acreage for both crops in the August Crop Report.