June 11, 2013

June Conab Report - Soybeans Lowered and Corn Increased

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

In the June Report, which is the ninth of the growing season, Conab trimmed their 2012/13 Brazilian soybean estimate by 0.23 million tons to 81.28 million. The soybean acreage was unchanged from last month, but the soybean yield was trimmed slightly from last month (2,941 kg/ha or 42.6 bu/ac) to 2,933 kg/ha (42.5 bu/ac). The reason cited for the lower yield was disappointing results from northeastern Brazil (the states of Maranhao, Tocantins, Piaui, and Bahia). Dry weather during the heart of the grain filling period resulted in a regional soybean yield of 2,303 kg/ha (33.4 bu/ac), which is 21% less than the yield during the 2011/12 growing season.

The Brazilian corn crop is now estimated at 78.46 million tons, which is 0.47 million tons more than last month. The full season corn crop is estimated at 34.84 million tons (basically unchanged from last month) and the safrinha corn crop is estimated at 43.62 million tons, which is 0.43 million tons more than last month. The safrinha corn yield is estimated at 4,873 kg/ha (75.0 bu/ac), which is down slightly from last month (4,904 kg/ha or 75.5 bu/ac).

The big change for the safrinha corn crop was an increase of 145,000 planted hectares from the previous month (358,000 acres). Conab is now estimating that Brazilian farmers planted 8.95 million hectares of safrinha corn compared to 7.61 million hectares during the 2011/12 growing season.

Apparently, Brazilian farmers planted more safrinha corn after the recommended planting window had closed in late February than what was previously estimated. Conab stated in the report that they just captured the increased safrinha acreage in their most recent monthly surveys. The way it stands now, the safrinha corn crop will represent 55.6% of Brazil's total corn crop, or a new record high.