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June 13, 2018

Conab Increases Soybean Estimate and Lowers Corn Estimate

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

In their latest monthly report issued on Tuesday, Conab increased their 2017/18 Brazilian soybean estimate and they lowered their 2017/18 Brazilian corn estimate.

The Brazilian soybean estimate was increased 1.0 million tons to 118.0 million, which is a new record large production. Last year, Brazil produced 114.0 million tons of soybeans. The soybean acreage was increased 40,000 hectares to 35.1 million hectares (86.6 million acres) and the soybean yield was increased 26 kg/ha to 3,359 kg/ha (47.0 bu/ac).

The total 2017/18 Brazilian corn estimate was lowered 4.2 million tons to 85.0 million. The full-season corn production was increased 0.5 million tons to 26.7 million while the safrinha corn production was lowered 4.7 million tons to 58.2 million.

The full-season corn acreage remained unchanged while the full-season corn yield was increased 95 kg/ha to 5,264 kg/ha (81.0 bu/ac).

The big change in Brazilian corn production came in the safrinha production. Dry weather during April and early May impacted the corn just when it was in the sensitive reproductive period. The dryness had the biggest impact in Parana, Sao Paulo, Mato Grosso do Sul, and parts of Minas Gerais and Goias.

As a result, the safrinha corn production was lowered 4.7 million tons from last month's report to 58.2 million tons. This now represents a reduction of 13.5% compared to last year's production of 67.3 million tons. The safrinha corn yield is now estimated at 5,029 kg/ha (77.4 bu/ac) compared to last year's yield of 5,564 kg/ha (85.6 bu/ac) If confirmed the safrinha production would be down 13.6% compared to last year's production of 67.3 million tons