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June 13, 2019

Conab Increases Brazilian Corn Estimate 1.8 mt to 98.0 Million Tons

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

In their June Crop Report, Conab increased their estimate of the 2018/19 Brazilian corn crop by 1.8 million tons to 98.0 million. The 2018/19 Brazilian soybean estimate was increased 0.5 million tons to 114.8 million.

Harvesting of the 2018/19 Brazilian safrinha corn crop is just getting underway with less than 10% of the corn harvested. Mato Grosso is the largest safrinha corn producing state and the corn in that state is approximately 7% harvested. Parana is the second largest producer and the corn is approximately 15% harvested in Parana.

Most of the increase in Conab's corn estimate came from the safrinha corn crop. The safrinha corn production is now estimated at 70.6 million tons, which is 1.5 million tons more than last month. The safrinha corn production is now 31.1% larger than last year.

Conab estimates the safrinha corn acreage at 12.32 million hectares (30.4 million acres), which is up 6.9% compared to last year. The safrinha corn yield is estimated at 5,288 kg/ha (81.4 bu/ac), which is up 22.7% compared to last year.

Early corn yields from Mato Grosso indicate record high corn yields in some locations. Officials in the state are crediting the high yields to the corn being planted within the ideal planting window and beneficial weather during the entire growing season.

The full-season corn production is now estimated at 26.3 million tons, which is 0.2 million tons higher than last month, but 1.8% below last year.

Brazil's full-season corn acreage is now estimated at 4.97 million hectares (12.2 million acres), which is down 2% from last year. The full-season corn yield is now estimated at 5,288 kg/ha (81.4 bu/ac), which is up 0.3% compared to last year. Brazilian farmers continue to switch some of their full-season corn acreage to soybeans and then plant safrinha corn instead.

The 2018/19 Brazilian soybean estimate was increased 0.5 million tons to 114.8 million tons. The latest increase in the soybean estimate is being attributed to good late-season yields from the state of Rio Grande do Sul in southern Brazil and good late-season yields from northeastern Brazil.