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June 23, 2015

Brazil's Safrinha Corn Crop Exceeding Expectations

After all the worries about late planting, the 2015 safrinha corn crop in Brazil is ending up better than anyone has expected. The corn was planted later than normal due to the delays in getting the soybeans harvested and farmers were worried that the delay would result in lower yields. In Mato Grosso for example, approximately 40% of the corn was planted after the ideal planting window had closed.

Those fears were not realized and the safrinha corn yields are expected to be at record levels due to excellent weather during the growing season. The rainy season in Mato Grosso, which is the largest safrinha corn producing state in Brazil, was extended for the fourth year in a row and there were no frosts or freezing temperatures in Parana or Mato Grosso do Sul (the number two and three producing states) to impact the late development of the crop. In fact, the latest assessment of the safrinha corn crop in the state of Parana has the crop rated 97% good and 3% average.

Most analysts in Brazil are now estimating that the safrinha corn crop will be 51 million tons or greater. Agroconsult is estimating the safrinha corn crop at 52.5 million tons with the possibility of further increases going forward. Celeres is estimating the crop at 51.8 million tons. Agroconsult is expecting the 2015/16 Brazilian corn production to be at least 83 million tons. Currently, Conab is estimating the Brazilian corn crop at 80.2 million tons.

Much of the safrinha corn crop is Brazil is destined for export and Agroconsult is estimating that Brazil will export a record 27.1 million tons this year compared to the 20.6 million that were exported last year. Currently, the USDA is estimating that Brazil will export 23.5 million tons of corn.