June 24, 2015
Moderate El Nino Expected to Last Through the Summer Months
The forecast is for a moderate El Nino to last at least through the summer months and generally that should result in slightly below normal temperatures and adequate precipitation this summer. If that were to occur, it sounds like the weather this summer in the U.S. would be favorable for the crops due to the limited periods of hot and dry weather. The problem thus far has been too much moisture, not too little.
Similar moderate El Nino years occurred in 1997, 1987, 1972, 1965, and 1957. During those five years, the corn yield ended up above trend line in 3 out of 5 and the soybean yield ended up above trend line in 4 out of 5 years.