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June 25, 2014

How Many Acres Lost in U.S. and is this a Repeat of 1993?

The problem thus far with the storms is more of a lost acreage problem than it is lost yield potential, especially for the corn crop. Determining the number of acres lost is a very difficult thing to do and it will also depend if there is any additional excessive rain or if the atmosphere starts to dry out.

In selected counties in southern Minnesota the number of acres under water may be 5% of the total. In other counties, it may be 1-2% or less. In northwest Iowa, the hardest hit areas may approach 5% lost, but that would be confined to selected areas in northwest Iowa. In southeastern South Dakota the hardest hit areas may have lost 5%. Additionally, there may be some lost acres in Nebraska, Iowa, and Minnesota due to hail damage and I do not expect the hailed-out corn to be replanted. The hailed-out soybeans might still be replanted. Some additional acreage could be lost in Indiana and Ohio due to excessive moisture.

Collectively, we may have lost up to 2 million acres, but that is just a guess at this point. If the storms keep coming, that number may go higher. If the atmosphere dries up a little allowing for some drying and replanting (especially for soybeans), the number may go down a little.

There has been some talk recently comparing this year to 1993, but as of now, there is no comparison between this year and 1993. In small localized areas, yes the flooding might be as bad as 1993, but over the wider region, it is not even close to as bad as it was in 1993. It would need to rain like this for several more weeks and over a much wider area to even approach the flooding problem that was experienced in 1993.