June 27, 2012

Iowa Will be the Key Swing State for 2012 Crop Yields

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Iowa is the state where the crops transition from the poorer conditions of the eastern Celt to the better conditions of the western Corn Belt. Therefore, Iowa is going to be the key swing state in 2012 as far as crop yields are concerned (how many times have we heard that over the years, but I am talking about crop yields and not politics).

The condition of the Iowa corn crop has been rated for five weeks and the amount of the crop rated in the good to excellent category during the first five weeks has been: 77%, 75%, 67%, 67%, and 68%. The long-term average in Iowa during the last week of June is for 73% of the corn to be rated good to excellent.

Iowa has approximately 15% of the U.S. corn acreage, so it is a vitally important state for the nationwide corn yield. If the corn crop in the state of Iowa can stabilize or maybe even improve, then that would go a long way toward limiting the downward risk for the U.S. corn crop. If the condition of the corn crop in Iowa starts to decline, then the downside risk for the U.S. corn crop is much greater. The crops in Iowa held their own this week, so the situation in the state has been stable for three weeks. In the nine crop reporting districts of Iowa, the percent of topsoil rated short to very short ranges from 30% in the west-central district to 78% in the east-central district.