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June 4, 2019

2019 U.S. Soybean Planting Record Slow at 39% Complete

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The 2019 U.S. soybean crop is 39% planted compared to 86% last year and 79% for the 5-year average. This represents an advance of 10% for the week. If we use the March Prospective Planting of 84.6 million acres, then there are more than 51 million acres of soybeans left to plant

The best soybean planting progress last week was in the northwestern Corn Belt where the soybeans in North Dakota are 70% planted (average is 83%), Minnesota is 51% (average is 90%), and South Dakota is 14% (average is 82%). Farmers in the western Corn Belt did get some soybeans planted with Nebraska 64% planted (average is 87%), Iowa is 41% (average is 89%), Kansas is 26% (average is 53%), and Missouri is 18% (average is 63%).

Soybean planting progress remains the slowest in the eastern Corn Belt with 21% of the soybeans planted in Illinois (average is 84%), Indiana is 17% (average is 80%), and Ohio is 18% (average is 76%). Soybean emergence is 19% compared to 65% last year and 56% for the 5-year average. At the present time, I would estimate that the soybeans are getting started about 2 1/2 weeks later than last year, maybe more depending on the location. With 51 million acres left to plant, the soybean crop could end up more than 3 weeks later than last year.

Soybeans Prevent Plant - It is too early to say anything definitive about how many acres of intended soybeans may be claimed as prevent plant, but here are the dates to remember. June 10th is the soybean prevent plant date in North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, and Nebraska. June 15th is the soybean prevent plant date in Iowa, northern 1/3 of Illinois, southern Wisconsin, Michigan, and northwestern Missouri. June 20th is the soybean prevent plant date for 2/3 of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and eastern Missouri.

Soybeans Replant - Some of the soybeans that had previously been planted will probably have to be replanted. There is still time to replant, but it will depend on the weather of course.

Soybeans Planted and Harvested Acreage - The soybean acreage at this point is just a guess given the following: the prevent plant dates are still ahead, some corn may be switched into soybeans, the government bailout program is completely confusing due to lack of details and conflicting signals, higher soybean prices may encourage farmers to plant as long as possible, and the fact that soybeans can be planted later than corn.

The March Prospective Planting report estimated that U.S. farmers would plant 84.6 million acres of soybeans. My guess at this point is that U.S. farmers will plant 84 million acres of soybeans - plus or minus 2 million acres. I also feel there could be more abandonment this year that normal, so I am going to start out using 98% of the planted acreage being harvested instead of the more normal 99%. Therefore, my soybean harvested acreage is in the range of 80.3 to 84.2 million acres.

Soybean Yield - I am going to stay with a 45 bu/ac soybean yield this week in spite of the fact that there are still 51 million acres of soybeans left to plant. I feel there will be a yield drag due to late planting, but I also feel it is too early to be adjusting potential soybean yields.