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June 7, 2011

Safrinha Corn Est. Unchanged, Dry Weather Continues to Affect

The last remaining crop in South America that could still be impacted by the weather is the safrinha corn crop in Brazil. The dry season started a month earlier than anticipated in Mato Grosso and as a result, a significant portion of the corn crop is encountering moisture stress as the crop fills grain. Parana is the second leading producer of safrinha corn and the state has been basically dry for the last month. At this writing, there is some rain in the near-term forecast for Parana and maybe southern Mato Grosso and if the forecast verifies, it would help the late planted safrinha corn especially in Parana.

The Brazilian corn estimate was left unchanged at 52 million tons which is 3 or 4 million tons below the estimates of the USDA and Conab respectively. The safrinha corn harvest will begin in Mato Grosso at the end of June and continue through July. The safrinha corn harvest in Parana will occur during July and August.