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June 7, 2019

Imea Estimates Soy Area in Mato Grosso to Increase 0.6% in 2019/20

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Farmers in Mato Grosso are expected to increase their 2019/20 soybean acreage only 0.59% compared to last year according to the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics Imea). If realized, this would be the smallest yearly increase in soybean acreage in Mato Grosso since records have been kept.

Imea is estimating that farmers will plant 9.72 million hectares of soybeans in 2019/20 (24.0 million acres), which would be an increase of 0.59% compared to last year. The soybean yields in 2019/20 are estimated at 56.2 sacks per hectare (49.9 bu/ac), which would represent an increase of 0.43% compared to last year. The total soybean production in the state is estimated at 32.8 million tons or an increase of 1.02% compared to 2018/19.

Imea attributes the cautious approach by farmers in the state to falling soybean prices during April and May. Since then, soybean and corn prices have increased on the Chicago Board of Trade due to historic slow planting progress in the United States caused by excessively wet conditions. With improved price prospects, farmers in the state may reevaluate their planting intensions before planting starts in mind-September.

This is Imea's first estimate of the 2019/20 soybean crop, but these estimates could change going forward with improved commodity prices due to the adverse weather in the United States. Imea has not estimated the 2019/20 safrinha corn acreage in the state, but the amount of safrinha corn planted in the state is a function of both the corn price and the timeliness of the soybean harvest. If corn prices rally and the 2019/20 soybeans are harvested on timely fashion, it could encourage farmers in the state to increase their safrinha corn acreage.

Farmers in Mato Grosso have not yet purchased the majority of their crop inputs for the 2019/20 growing season, so their planting decisions could still change going forward.