June 8, 2016

Frost in Southern Brazil could impact Safrinha Corn in Parana

A strong cold front is sweeping into southern Brazil bringing with it the possibility of freezing temperatures in part of the safrinha corn production acres of the state of Parana. The Meteorological System of Parana (Simpar) increased their probability of freezing temperatures in their latest forecast due to the possibility of clearer skies and lower relative humidity than previously expected. The coldest temperatures are forecasted for the southern part of the state with just light frosts in the northern part of the state.

Technicians for the Department of Rural Economics (Deral) are forecasting freezing temperatures in approximately 25% of the state with milder frosts in the remainder of the state. The coldest temperatures are expected in the western, central, and southern areas.

Farmers in the state planted 2.2 million hectares of safrinha corn and Deral is estimating that 500,000 to 600,000 hectares of safrinha corn is most at risk. Deral is reporting that 3% of the corn has been harvested and that 45% of the remaining crop is already safe from frost.

If the corn at risk (500-600,000 hectares) loses 10% to 20% of its production potential, the total lose would equate to 0.3 to 0.6 million tons or 2.5% to 5% of the statems total safrinha corn production. Generally, the eventual loses from cold temperatures usually ends up less than initially predicted.

The state of Parana is the largest wheat producing state in Brazil but no loses are expected for the wheat because the crop is just now being planted or in early vegetative development. The state also produces coffee, but the coffee is already being harvested and nearly all the coffee is grown in the northern part of the state where the frosts are expected to be light.