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June 9, 2017

Brazil Soy and Corn Prod. Increased 1.0 mt in June Conab Report

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

In their June Crop Report, Conab increased the 2016/17 Brazilian corn estimate by 1.0 million tons to 93.83 million and they increased the 2016/17 soybean estimate by 0.9 million tons to 113.91 million.

Brazil's total 2016/17 corn crop is now estimated at 93.83 million tons, which is 1.0 million tons more than their May estimate. Brazil's total corn production is now 27.3 million tons larger than the 2015/16 crop (66.53 million tons), which represents an increase of 41%. The increase in corn production from last month was mainly due to an increase in the safrinha production.

The safrinha corn production in Brazil is now estimated at 63.52 million tons, which is an increase of 0.84 million tons over the May estimate. The safrinha corn estimate is now 22.7 million tons larger than last year's crop of 40.77 million (+55.8%). The safrinha corn acreage was increased 121,000 hectares in June compared to May to 11.82 million hectares (29.19 million acres). The safrinha corn acreage is 11.9% more than the previous year.

The safrinha yield is now estimated at 5,372 kg/ha (82.7 bu/ac), which is a 39% increase over last year's drought plagued crop. The safrinha corn crop now represents 67.6% of Brazil's total corn production. The top four safrinha corn producing states are: Mato Grosso (39.8% of the total), Parana (20.9%), Mato Grosso do Sul (14.1%), and Goias (12.1%).

There was very little change made to Brazil's full-season corn production, which is now estimated at 30.31 million tons (+17% compared to last year). The full-season corn acreage is 5.5 million hectares (13.8 million acres), or +3.1% more than last year. The full-season corn yield is now estimated at 5,490 kg/ha (84.5 bu/ac), which is +14.2% compared to last year.

Conab is now estimating the 2016/17 Brazilian soybean production at 113.91 million tons, which is 0.9 million tons more than their May estimate. Brazil's 2016/17 soybean production represents an increase of 18.48 million tons (+19.4%) compared to last year's crop (95.43 million tons), which was negatively impacted by hot and dry weather.

The soybean acreage is estimated at 33.88 million hectares (83.68 million acres), which represents an increase of 1.9% compared to last year. The acreage in June was essentially unchanged from their May estimate.

The soybean yield is now estimated at 3,362 kg/ha (48.7 bu/ac), which is 0.3 bu/ac more than their May estimate. Brazil's soybean yield is now 17.1% larger than last year's yield of 2,870 kg/ha (41.6 bu/ac). The top five soybean producing states in Brazil are: Mato Grosso (26.7% of the total), Parana (17.1%), Rio Grande do Sul (16.4%), Goias (9.4%), and Mato Grosso do Sul (7.5%).