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March 11, 2020

Hot and Dry Conditions in Argentina could Impact Late Planted Soy

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The weather last week in Argentina was generally hot and dry. In some of the southwestern production areas, they have gone 2-3 weeks without any significant rain. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange indicated that drought was a concern in western Buenos Aires province and in La Pampa. These adverse conditions are coming at a particularly bad time for the soybeans that are generally filling pods. The soybean growth cycle in Argentina would be the equivalent of about mid-August in the United States.

We have noted many times in the past that the soils in Argentina have a very good water holding capacity and that it takes a while for moisture stresses to develop. After several weeks of hot and dry weather, it now looks like moisture stresses are occurring.

There is some hope in the forecast for some showers this week and improved chances of rainfall next week, especially in southern Argentina.

The soybeans in general are 47% filling pods and 12% mature and the crop is rated 8% poor to very poor (last week was 0%), 43% fair (last week was 29%), and 50% good to excellent (last week was 71%). The soil moisture for the soybeans was rated 23% short to very short (last week was 4%) and 76% favorable to optimum (last week was 96%). Needless to say, the hot and dry weather is negatively impacting the crop.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange left their soybean estimate unchanged at 54.5 million tons and they stated that their soybean estimate would probably not go any higher.

In their March WASDE Report, the USDA increased their 2019/20 Argentina soybean estimate 1.0 million tons to 54.0 million tons.